Happy July 4th weekend everybody!
Normally on this weekend I like to go outside and drink some beers and eat some hot dogs and watch the fireworks. Unfortunately it is 102 degrees outside so I will be sitting inside and drinking beers and eating hot dogs and watching sports.
Honestly ……… not much of a downgrade.
– Rodger Sherman
Today’s Lineup
The USMNT has already taken a leap. Now it needs one more
Video review is a good idea most of the time … and excruciatingly bad the rest
The Jaylen Brown trade probably could have gone better for the Celtics!
🇺🇸 Stepped on, stepped up 🇺🇸
The United States beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 on Wednesday night, advancing to the Round of 16 at their home World Cup. It’s the third time this World Cup that the USMNT has comfortably beaten a weaker opponent by multiple goals. It should have been nervy and stressful after Folarin Balogun’s QUESTIONABLE!!!!! ejection. (We’ll talk about that in a bit.)
Instead, it felt comfortable. They actually extended their lead with Malik Tillman’s spectacular free kick goal.
Tillman’s foot had gotten stepped on before that goal. He needed to swap out shoes, and his sock was clearly bloody. Red cards, red sock, no problem. This team was simply too talented to be troubled by Bosnia.
I am sorry to keep coming back to the same point in every newsletter, but: This team is so, so, so much better than any USA men’s national team we’ve ever seen.
AND IT MAKES ME NERVOUS.
But unlike me, this team feels unshakeable.
I think I’ve spent a lot of time focusing on the USMNT’s explosive offense, which is fair! With 10 goals in four games, they have blown past the previous record for goals by a Team USA in a men’s World Cup (seven.) But the win against Bosnia made me want to focus on the defense.
Bosnia didn’t come close to threatening Team USA at full strength. In the first half, they had .04 expected goals and a grand total of one touch in Team USA’s box.
But then, after a red card against American striker Folarin Balogun — we’ll talk about it later — things didn’t get much better for Bosnia. Despite having 35 minutes of play up a man knowing they needed to score one goal (and later, two goals) to keep their World Cup dreams alive, Bosnia finished the game without ever getting a good look at the American net. Their best chance, according to Fotmob’s data, was an attempt from the top of the box by Ermedin Demirović that had a value of .05 expected goals.
Bosnia finished the game with 0.25 total xG and seven touches in the American box, despite spending most of the game chasing a goal and with almost a full half with more players than Team USA.
For comparison: When Paraguay played Australia in a game where both teams seemed to have a handshake deal to play for a 0-0 tie, they finished the game with 0.24 xG and seven touches in Australia’s box. The USMNT’s defense was so disciplined and strong that they made an opponent that desperately needed a goal look as dangerous on offense as a team not trying to score at all.
The Americans have pretty clearly established themselves as a step above mid-level competition. In three meaningful games — and yes, I’m throwing out the game against Turkey with nine different starters — they’ve outscored their opposition 9-1, winning each game by multiple goals. They’ve led those games for 207 of 270 total minutes, never trailing at any point.
(For some reason official stats websites insist on including the Turkey game in the USMNT’s official statistics, even though I, personally, have decided it doesn’t count.)
That sort of dominance is rare. Not just for the USMNT, but for anybody! How many teams at this World Cup have dominated their opponents so thoroughly for so much of the World Cup? France … Argentina … Colombia … Mexico … and that’s kind of it!
It’s hard to look this good in World Cup games!. Heck, Argentina took a draw against Saudi Arabia four years ago before winning the World Cup. And the USMNT is out there crushing opponents!
But all that has gotten them is a trip to the Round of 16, a stage they’ve reached in their last three World Cup appearances, and a matchup against a Belgium team that is probably a little bit better than they are. After all their strong play, this tournament could end the same way as so many other World Cups.
It’s one thing to comfortably, consistently beat weaker opponents — and it’s something this United States team has never done before. But it’s another level to beat opponents like this Belgium squad. And every four years, for as long as I’ve been following the team, the USMNT has crashed hard into that ceiling.
Monday night, they’ll have a chance to convert that improvement into results. Happy birthday, America: Your present is the biggest game in American (men’s!) soccer history.
🟥🧐🟨 After review … 🟥🧐🟨
The past few days of the World Cup have been dominated by controversial replay review decisions. Some showed how advanced technology can help make correct calls that wouldn’t have been made in the past. Others ………… not so much.
The controversy over replay reviews reminds me a lot of the way we talk about “AI,” which has changed so quickly and now means so many different things that we have to be more specific with our complaints. There’s artificial intelligence involved in, say, Google Maps telling me the fastest way from Point A to Point B, which I think we can all agree is useful. That’s different from generative AI being used to create a deepfake video of a famous person saying whatever the user wants them to say, which I think we can all agree is ethically fraught and probably doesn’t make the world a better place.
After review … I think we can fix a few things about reviews.
Let’s start with the wild end to Portugal-Croatia. The Croatians appeared to equalize in the 93rd minute on a desperate last gasp ball heaved into a crowded box, which bounced around and somehow wound up in the back of the net. However, after review, the assist came from Mario Pašalić, who was offside when the ball touched the head of Igor Matanović.
It’s actually not clear from viewing the replay whether Matanović’s head touches the ball. But this year, FIFA introduced a sensor inside the ball that detects contact. (This is how they know the exact moment when a ball is kicked on those weird cartoon-looking offside graphics.) The sensor, an inertial measurement unit or IMU, detects the ball’s movement, acceleration, and impact 500 times per second. The sensor detected a touch at the moment the ball passed Matanović’s head, likely brushing his hair. Although it uses different technology, something similar, known as the “snickometer,” has been part of cricket officiating for more than a decade.
(Also on Thursday: The NBA announced it would test similar sensors in its basketballs during its upcoming Summer League, which could be very useful for determining whether the ball hits the rim on a potential shot clock violation, or whether a player deflected the ball on the way out of bounds.)
Croatia, believe it or not, has not been particularly angry about this. Matanovic admitted he thought he felt the ball touch his hair.
I personally am in favor of this!!!!!! New technologies that give us exact answers on specific calls — I’m in.
I will say though: Pretty funny to use a futuristic sensor in the ball that pings 500 times per second that can detect a hair-touch to the ball … when the game is supposed to be 90 minutes long, but this call took place in the 103rd minute, because the referee added 10 minutes to the game and then Portugal scored a goal in that 10 minutes which added another three minutes, and at no point did the referee have to announce whether the game was close to ending.
However, there was a call in the 118th minute of the Belgium-Senegal game that wasn’t as cut and dry. On a cross into the box, Senegal’s Lamine Camara clipped the foot of Belgium’s Youri Tielemans. It wasn’t a card, but it was a foul in the box, which is an automatic penalty. And when you get a penalty in the 118th minute, you win the game.
Was it a foul? Yes, probably. But if it was such an easy call, it wouldn’t have taken the VAR and the on-field official seven minutes to review. Penalties are supposed to be awarded for play that’s reckless, careless, and/or uses excessive force. Camara’s play wasn’t reckless and didn’t involve excessive force. You could argue it was a little bit careless, but he likely didn’t realize Tielemans was sliding in behind him. And besides, it’s not clear that Tielemans would have gotten to the ball if not for Camara.
Senegal has now been on the wrong side of a stoppage time VAR decision twice this year. After a call in the 97th minute of the AFCON final, Senegal players left the field in protest. When they came back, starting goalie Édouard Mendy saved the penalty shot, and Senegal won in extra time … only to have the African soccer federation award the win to Morocco months later.
That last bit is not strictly related to this story, I just think everybody should know about it.
After the call against Belgium, Senegalese players laid down on top of the penalty spot in some combination of feigned injury/protest. Unfortunately, it didn’t work: Tielemans hit the penalty, and Senegal lost.
And now it’s time to talk about the thing you all came here to complain about: the red card against Folarin Balogun in the USA-Bosnia game:
Man ………..
Balogun steps on the foot of Bosnia’s Tarik Muharemović. It’s clearly not malicious. Balogun isn’t looking at or targeting Muhamerović’s foot, he just steps in the wrong spot as Muharemović’s foot comes down. Balogun isn’t doing anything careless or reckless or excessive to me.
ESPN’s Andy Davies, a former referee, compared the play to a similar one by Lionel Messi earlier in the tournament. Davies wrote that Balogun’s play didn’t deserve a foul at all, and Messi’s play deserved a red card … but somehow, the exact opposite rulings were applied.
Balogun is out for the Monday night game against Belgium. I’m not ready to think about what that means yet.
I think the most important factors in determining whether replay review is being used well are accuracy, objectivity and speed. Ideally, you can quickly make calls that are guaranteed to be correct … and unbelievably, that’s actually possible a lot of the time.
I find a lot of the skepticism about VAR to be unearned nostalgia for a time that sucked. We used to play games without replay review, and one time, a guy straight-up punched the ball into the net with his hand during a major World Cup game and the official didn’t realize it was a handball. It’s good that we can fix errors like that now!
But the system feels foolish when officials spend minutes poring over replays, only to make calls that still aren’t necessarily correct. If we want officiating review to maximize accuracy, objectivity, and speed, the Senegal penalty and the Balogun red card were both failures. They added inconvenience and scrutiny to the game without solving the problem of referees missing calls. And it doesn’t take a ton of review to realize that’s not a good formula.
🇺🇸❤️🌎 “America hosting the World Cup” moment of the day" 🇺🇸❤️🌎
Most of these have been about, like, a Swedish guy seeing god in a Buc-ees, but I was really touched by the story of an Oakland woman who decided, what the hell, why not go to a Cape Verde watch party 40 years after serving in the Peace Corps there … and ran into one of her former students after 40 years.
NBC caught up with Jill and Ivan, her former student. He says he’d been looking for her for a long time. I hope they’re hanging out today to watch the Argentina match …
… and in this too-hot-to-watch-the-fireworks weather, maybe the best way to celebrate America on this July 4th is to go watch a World Cup game at a local bar or restaurant representing one of the countries playing this weekend. One of my favorite things about America is that wherever you are, you’re probably not too far from a watch party for one of these World Cup countries, and there’s not too many places on the planet where that’s the case.
🇧🇪 Belgium 3 🇧🇪🇧🇪🇧🇪
🇸🇳 Senegal 2 🇸🇳🇸🇳
Stunning comeback from the Belgians to set up a match against the United States in the Round of 16. They were down 2-0, and had subbed off arguably their two best players in Kevin De Bruyne and Jérémy Doku. But they scored in the 83rd and 86th minutes, and then won on the aforementioned penalty. It was the first comeback from a two-goal deficit in the knockout rounds of the World Cup since … Belgium in 2018! So maybe Team USA should try to sit on a one-goal lead.
The good news for the USMNT is that this Belgian team does not have great vibes, despite the comeback. Tielemens and teammate Leandro Trossard had to be separated during a heated on-pitch argument, and after the De Bruyne and Doku subs, the Belgian camp is sure to be arguing about who deserves playing time and leadership roles. If we can just get the Dutch-speaking Belgians and the French-speaking Belgians to start beefing with each other, we’ll really have a dissent stew going.
For once, I’m sad to report that this newsletter knows ball. We talked about how Senegal’s goalkeeper, Édouard Mendy, was out for this game … and his backup, Mory Diaw, made a critical misplay leading to the second goal, failing to clear a ball into the box and leaving the goal wide open.
🇵🇹 Portugal 2 🇵🇹🇵🇹
🇭🇷 Croatia 1 🇭🇷
Portugal subbed off Ronaldo in the 81st minute and scored the game-winning goal a few minutes later. Very interesting. The 40-year-old striker did score Portugal’s first goal … on a penalty won by another player. It was the record-extending 146th goal of Ronaldo’s international career, and his first-ever goal in the World Cup knockout stages.
🏴 England 2 🏴🏴
🇨🇩 DR Congo 1 🇨🇩
Another European favorite overcoming a deficit against an African opponent. Bummer! The Congolese went up in the first half and held the lead thanks to a brilliant goalkeeping performance by Lionel Mpasi — one of the top two Lionel M__si's in the World Cup, for sure — but Harry Kane showed why he’s one of the world’s best goalscorers with two second-half strikes.
🇨🇭 Switzerland 2 🇨🇭🇨🇭
🇩🇿 Algeria 0
Switzerland has eight goals in four games. Twenty-year-old Johan Manzambi has scored three of them, and assisted two others. Congrats to him (and his agent!)
I guess Algeria was always going to lose in the Round of 32 after the “Rock Chalk Algeria” thing.
🇪🇸 Spain 3 🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸
🇦🇹 Austria 0
A dominant win in The Hapsburg Bowl, setting up a Treaty of Tordesillas showdown between Spain and Portugal. (The World Cup is the best time to know a lot of otherwise useless facts about geography and history.)
🏀⁉️🏀 HUH!?!?!? 🏀⁉️🏀
I keep peeking over at the NBA from the World Cup like Superintendent Chalmers opening Principal Skinner’s kitchen door in the steamed hams skit — GOOD LORD, WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THERE.
The Celtics traded Jaylen Brown, the 2024 Finals MVP who finished sixth in MVP and all-NBA voting this year, for Paul George, who is 36 and hasn’t received a vote for MVP since 2019. They did get a pair of future first-round picks in the deal, but it hardly feels like fair compensation for someone who was clearly one of the league’s best 10 players this year. Of all the trades in the last two weeks, this one feels the most bewildering. It likely had less to do with basketball and more to do with Brown’s loud, occasionally livestreamed discontent, including his apparent anger about being included in potential trade packages for Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Which is kind of funny. If including Brown in trade offers for Giannis deteriorated the relationship so badly that Boston had to trade him anyway … they probably should’ve figured out a way to make the Giannis trade work instead of taking a bargain bin offer for a much worse player a week later. But what do I know? I’m not 2026 NBA Executive of the Year Brad Stevens!
🥉🏃♀️🇺🇸 Better late than never! 🥉🏃♀️🇺🇸
It took Alysia Montaño about two minutes to finish the 800m at the 2012 London Olympics, and it’s going to take her about 16 years to get her medal. Montaño has officially been upgraded to bronze, 14 years after her race, after two Russian runners ahead of her were disqualified for doping. (Somewhere in a lab, there’s a guy whose job it is to test decade-old pee.) Fourteen years has to be one of the longest gaps before an upgrade.
Montaño famously competed in a race while eight months pregnant in 2014. That baby will be a teenager when she watches her mom earn an Olympic medal at a retroactive ceremony at the 2028 Olympics in LA.
🇺🇸🌭🎆 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest 🇺🇸🌭🎆
Saturday, 10:45 a.m. ET in Brooklyn (ESPN)
The Fourth of July doesn’t feel right without watching Joey Chestnut and Miki Sudo do their (deeply upsetting) thing on Coney Island. Chestnut eyes his 18th mustard belt, while Sudo seeks her fifth in a row. Chestnut demolished his competition and shortened his lifespan by sucking down 70.5 dogs in 10 minutes last year; nobody else in the men’s competition had more than 50. Sudo ate 33 and beat her closest competitor by 11 dogs.
🌍⚽🏆 World Cup! 🏆⚽🌍
🇦🇺 Australia 🇦🇺 vs. 🇪🇬 Egypt 🇪🇬
Friday, 2 p.m. ET in Arlington
Somebody’s going to win their first knockout game ever! Australia’s attack will probably need to fare better considering they haven’t scored since their opener against Turkey. Egypt has Mohammed Saleh, but he’s recovering from a hamstring injury.
🇦🇷 Argentina 🇦🇷 vs. 🇨🇻 Cape Verde 🇨🇻
Friday, 6 p.m. ET in Miami
Lionel Messi vs. 40-year-old viral keeper Vozinha … at this point, probably the most two famous players on earth. Argentina hasn’t shown many signs of weakness in its quest to repeat, but maybe the mythical stopper can work his magic one more time after shutting down Spain during the group stage.
🇨🇴 Colombia 🇨🇴 vs. 🇬🇭 Ghana 🇬🇭
Friday, 9:30 p.m. ET in Kansas City
Our thoughts are with Ghana, whose capital city Accra was stricken with floods. Both teams’ defenses were stout during the group stage — Colombia allowed just one goal, Ghana allowed two.
🇨🇦 Canada 🇨🇦 vs. 🇲🇦 Morocco 🇲🇦
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET in Houston
Canada aims to extend their best World Cup run ever, while underrated giant Morocco seeks a second straight trip to the quarterfinals.
🇵🇾 Paraguay 🇵🇾 vs. 🇫🇷 France 🇫🇷
Saturday, 5 p.m. ET in Philadelphia
Paraguay looks to slay another dragon after stunning Germany in the Round of 32, but the French have looked like the best team in the tournament so far. This is the match most likely to be affected by the heat wave across the Eastern USA this weekend — it’s gonna be close to 100 degrees Fahrenheit in Philly at kickoff.
🇧🇷 Brazil 🇧🇷 vs. 🇳🇴 Norway 🇳🇴
Sunday, 4 p.m. ET in East Rutherford
A storied powerhouse against an up-and-coming one means this game could be storybook. Can Erling Haaland continue rowing across the U.S., or will the Brazilians make it nine straight quarterfinal appearances? The Brazilians haven’t looked particularly convincing so far, with a draw against Morocco and a late winner against Japan.
🏴 England 🏴vs. 🇲🇽 Mexico 🇲🇽
Sunday, 8 p.m. ET in Mexico City
This has a strong chance to be one of the best matches of the entire World Cup. Harry Kane looks ageless coming off a two-goal performance to propel the British into the Round of 16. Mexico’s win over Ecuador was its first in the knockout rounds since the 1986 World Cup … which was also hosted in Mexico. Can the English handle the heat, the elevation, and the intensity of the Azteca?
🚵 🇫🇷🥖 Tour de France 🚵 🇫🇷🥖
Starts Saturday, in Barcelona (not France) (Peacock)
Slovenia’s Tadej Pogačar is the heavy favorite to pull off a three-peat and become the fifth rider to win five yellow jerseys. Jonas Vingegaard has won the Tour twice, and is by far Pogi’s biggest threat … assuming Pogačar hasn’t wrapped up the race by the Alps in the third week.
🏏 Women’s T20 World Cup final 🏏
Sunday, 10:30 a.m. ET in London (Willow TV)
Australia has been the best team in the tournament and won the World Cup six out of nine times it’s been held … but England is hosting and their only T20 World Cup win came the last time they hosted, in 2009.
🎆⚾ MLB ⚾🎆
Pirates vs. Nationals
Saturday at 11:05 a.m. ET
July 4 is all about fireworks, and these two offenses will provide plenty from the nation’s capital. Baseball’s first game of the day features two teams that both rank in the top five in slugging percentage and top 10 in home runs thanks to mashers like James Wood, Brandon Lowe and C.J. Abrams. Although neither Pittsburgh nor Washington has established itself as a real contender, both are firmly in the wild card mix, which means this could have playoff implications come October.
Rays vs. Astros
Saturday at 7:10 p.m. ET
While not a showcase contest per se, this pitching matchup warrants your attention. Since the start of 2024, both Drew Rasmussen and Hunter Brown place second and third, respectively, for lowest ERA among American League starting pitchers (minimum 200 innings pitched). MVP candidate Yordan Álvarez and young slugger Junior Caminero will look to light up the scoreboard against ferocious competition.
Thank you for reading and for your support!
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