I got mad about a Jets game Sunday. They were up 10 points in the fourth quarter and lost in overtime to the Packers.
Quite frankly, this is incredible progress. Do you realize how long it’s been since I’ve been ANGRY about a Jets loss? Normally I’m just apathetic and stare off silently into the distance! Anger means this team is going places!
– Rodger Sherman
Today’s Lineup
The Chiefs win in overtime. Again.
Are the Chargers cooked?
The Falcons’ QB disaster
👑🕕 The Kings of OT 🕕👑
🏹 Chiefs 33 🏹
🧲 Colts 30 🧲
There was some debate about what the Colts should have done Sunday night in overtime against the Chiefs, as if it made any difference.
Trailing by three points with three minutes left in OT, the Colts opted to kick a game-tying field goal rather than attempting a do-or-die fourth-and-long conversion attempt. This increased the possibility of a tie, but made it almost impossible for them to win, since they’d need to stop the Chiefs and score in three minutes. Was it smart to play for a tie? Was it actually riskier to give Patrick Mahomes the ball in a sudden-death scenario than to go for it?
The devastating truth: It doesn’t matter.
There is no game theory that can beat the Chiefs in overtime. Every strategy every team has tried has been in vain. Call heads and you’re dead. Call tails, and it actually fails, contrary to decades of research indicating that it’s literally impossible for tails to fail. The NFL has changed the rules of overtime as a result of Chiefs games, yet the results stay the same: If the game goes to overtime, they win.
The Chiefs have now played eight overtime games in the regular season in the Mahomes Era. They’re 8-0. If we include the postseason, this was their 10th overtime win with Mahomes; no other team has more than seven in that span. That includes overtime wins in the AFC Championship game and the Super Bowl.
Kansas City has, in fact, lost in OT in the playoffs — the 2018 AFC Championship Game against the Patriots and the 2021 AFC Championship Game against the Bengals. But two of their most famous playoff wins — the “13 seconds” game against the Bills and their Super Bowl LVIII win over the 49ers — came in OT.
Despite the NFL’s changing rules, Kansas City keeps winning these games. The Chiefs scored a touchdown on the first possession of overtime in the 13 seconds game, ending the game against the Bills. That prompted the NFL to alter the league’s overtime procedures so both teams would get a possession in overtime. (The Chiefs were actually the ones to initially propose this rule, probably because of their 2019 loss in the AFC Championship Game to the Patriots.) But the Chiefs are undefeated in overtime since, including the 2024 Super Bowl where the 49ers got the ball first and kicked a field goal.
The Chiefs are clearly doing a favor for NFL’s broadcasting partners. Seven of their 12 overtime games have been in standalone TV spots: Four playoff games, a Thursday Night Football game, a Monday Night Football game, and two Sunday Night Football games.
What makes the Chiefs’ success remarkable is that overtime is generally a crapshoot where anybody can win. It’s hard to beat a great team over 60 minutes, but if you can make it to overtime, you’ve got a shot to come out on top over the course of 1.5-ish possessions with unusual rules. There’s very little correlation between being good at football and being good in overtime. Since 2000, the teams with the best records in overtime are the Cardinals and the Raiders, even though those teams are 26th and 31st, respectively, in the NFL in win percentage during that time period.
THE JETS are top- in overtime win percentage since 2000, while THE PATRIOTS are merely .500. But since Mahomes came to KC, the Chiefs have the best overall record in the NFL and the best OT record. They can’t stop winning these coin flips.
Literally. They’re winning 67 percent of overtime coin tosses in these games. (I haven’t actually gone back to check the stats on heads vs. tails.)
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Fantasy Genius of the Week
Fantasy Genius is the must-have fantasy football tool to unlock the lore, stories, and stats of YOUR league. Every week, we’re going to highlight the most interesting player of the week, so you can be a Fantasy Genius too.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 9 catches, 155 yards, 3 touchdowns (42.5 PPR)
Sometimes it’s bad for an elite wide receiver when a team’s starting quarterback goes down. Instead of the guy they’ve spent months building chemistry with, they’re catching passes from a rando.
But a Fantasy Genius might realize that sometimes … it’s actually great for an elite wide receiver’s stats when a team’s starting QB goes down. Think about it: If you’re a backup coming off the bench, who are you going to trust? The other guys, or the superstar stud who’s going to be open on every play?
With backup Drew Lock under center, JSN had his first career three-touchdown game on Sunday. Last year, Smith-Njigba was the WR2 in fantasy; on Sunday he had more points than in any week last season. JSN had 155 of the Seahawks’ 235 receiving yards, including 82 on this first-quarter touchdown pass.
Lock is absolutely locked in on JSN. Last year, Smith-Njigba was targeted on 36.2 percent of the Seahawks’ passing attempts — the highest rate in the NFL. This year, with Lock playing basically every snap since Sam Darnold went down on Seattle’s first drive of their first game, he’s up to a ridiculous 45.8 percent.
Lock’s time as Seattle’s starter might be short — Darnold’s ass injury is healing better than expected, never underestimate the healing power of the ass — but JSN managers might be just fine with a few more starts from the backup.
For more fantasy insights, check out Fantasy Genius to find out the real story of your league — who’s the best manager ever, who’s been getting lucky with bogus wins, and which NFL players you’ve lived and died with. Subscriptions start at $3.99 a month and give everybody in your league access — that’s like, 30 cents per player in a 12-team league. And use promo code RODGER to get 20 percent off!
🪫 Out of Juice 🪫
🎰 Raiders 26 🎰
🔌 Chargers 14 🔌
Like every season, the Chargers were expected to be mid-to-good this year, but they faced a tough schedule. They’d open the season with two gimme games against the Cardinals and Raiders, who both went 3-14 in 2025. Then they’d face the toughest stretch I have ever seen on any NFL schedule that I can remember.
They lost the two gimmes.
At home.
By double-digits.
When I think of the Los Angeles Chargers, I think of a team that’s pretty good but tragically fails to live up to its potential. Perhaps they lost seven games in a row on last-second touchdowns, or their offensive linemen were all in a hot-air balloon crash, or their kicker went 0-for-31 on field goals for the season.
What’s happening this year is … not that.
I have crunched the numbers and concluded: It has never been more over for any team two weeks into the season.
Last week, the Chargers lost 26-14 to the Cardinals. That loss looks a lot worse in retrospect, as the Cardinals lost 31-7 to the Seahawks.
Sunday, the Chargers lost 26-14 to the Raiders, and it should’ve been worse. The Chargers fumbled six times (three by Justin Herbert) and somehow recovered five of them.
By the way, not a typo — they lost both games 26-14. There have been exactly 12 games with that scoreline since 2000; the Chargers have somehow lost two in back-to-back weeks. I don’t know what that means, but it can’t be good.
The offense, in its first year with new coordinator Mike McDaniel, seems … uncoordinated. The Chargers lead the league in false starts (7) and had a fumble on a play where the center snapped the ball off a receiver in motion. Right tackle Joe Alt leads the NFL in penalties with five, including a holding call in the end zone that resulted in the first safety this NFL season.
The Chargers are one of just four 0-2 teams in the NFL. The others are the Colts (who, as we just talked about, lost a very competitive game to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs), the Dolphins (who are actively tanking), and the Falcons (who are playing their fourth-string QB.)
This makes the Chargers’ situation especially humiliating. They haven’t played any competitive games, and they are trying to win now, with their franchise quarterback fully healthy.
Only two teams have ever made the NFL playoffs after starting the season 0-2 with two losses at home: The 2003 Eagles, who promptly won 11 of the next 12, and the 1987 Colts, in the season the NFL began with replacement players. I don’t think the Chargers will be the third. Because …
My goodness, this upcoming schedule. The Chargers play the Bills, Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, Texans, and Ravens, in order.
That’s the top five teams in the Ringer’s preseason power rankings and the top five teams in preseason DVOA projections, plus Lamar Jackson’s Ravens and Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs. (As in, Lamar Jackson’s Ravens and Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs were expected to be the worst two in the bunch.)
Those seven teams are a combined 8-3 so far, with two of those three losses coming to teams the Chargers also have to play (the Rams’ loss to the 49ers and the Broncos’ loss to the Chiefs).
That stretch takes the Chargers to Nov. 22, when they play the Jets. It’s going to be November 22 the next time the Chargers play a team they should beat. There will be Christmas commercials on TV the next time the Chargers are favored in a game. The trees outside my window are full of leaves. Will the Chargers win before they’re barren?
🏝️ Stranded 🏝️
Jack Strand was a four-year starter for the Minnesota State-Moorhead Dragons in Division II, throwing over 13,000 yards and completing over 1,200 passes. Regardless of whether you believed in him as a fringe NFL Draft prospect, or had never heard about him until this paragraph, we can all agree: He definitely knows how to throw a football, from a physical and mechanical perspective.
But then he came into an NFL game on Sunday and forgot. The arm went forward, and the ball didn’t. Nerves, man.
That Strand was even playing for the Falcons is a sign something is deeply wrong. He was relieving third-string QB Cooper Rush, who was pretty disastrous, but also, what cosmic horrors has your team endured that the fourth-string QB is playing in Week 2?
Let’s examine one of the most cursed QB situations in recent history, before it becomes a little more normal.
Starting from the top: The Falcons’ starting QB is supposed to be Michael Penix Jr., who tore his ACL last November. The Falcons signed Tua Tagovailoa to start in his place, but Tagovailoa suffered an oblique injury in practice three days before the season opener.
The Falcons signed Cooper Rush in July when Tagovailoa was dealing with a separate injury, in case Tagovailoa wasn’t going to be able to go.
Personally, I remember Rush for being the QB during Central Michigan’s 34-point comeback during the 2014 Bahamas Bowl I attended. And he was also the QB when Central Michigan beat Oklahoma State on a last-second Hail Mary … a game I referenced in yesterday’s CFB column! Cooper Rush, what a guy.
Rush is probably best remembered for a stint starting in place of Dak Prescott in 2022, during which every single sports debate show had “Is Cooper Rush better than Dak Prescott?” debates to fill their daily Cowboys quota. (Here’s First Take, here’s Undisputed.) He’s gotten worse, though. Last year, he was probably the reason the Ravens missed the playoffs — the Ravens went 0-2 in his two starts and 2-0 when they went to Tyler Huntley instead.
They don’t keep official stats on “third-string quarterbacks,” so I can’t say “Rush was the first third-string QB to start Week 1 for his team since X,” but I suspect it had been a while.
A stat I do have: The Falcons have had a different QB in Week 1 for six straight years: Matt Ryan in 2021, Marcus Mariota in 2022, Desmond Ridder in 2023, Kirk Cousins in 2024, Penix in 2025, and Rush in 2026.
Anyway, Cooper Rush was really, really bad. He’s been absolutely brutal for the Falcons, throwing one touchdown and committing five turnovers (four interceptions, one lost fumble) in seven quarters of action. He ranks last in the NFL among qualifying QBs in passer rating, success rate, ANY/A, and EPA/play. (His EPA/play is -0.75, which means he’s costing the Falcons three-fourths of a point every time he throws the ball.)
So the Falcons turned to Strand, an undrafted rookie out of MSU-Moorhead. Moorhead, by the way, is the town on the other side of the North Dakota-Minnesota border from Fargo; Strand played about 15 minutes from the Fargodome, where North Dakota State won all its national championships.
Here’s the dragon mascot, since you were wondering:
Believe it or not, Strand wasn’t the only Division II quarterback to get NFL snaps Sunday — Tyson Bagent, who won the Harlon Hill Trophy as Division II’s best player in 2022 for the Shepherd University Rams, came in after Caleb Wliiams’ injury. But a 2023 article from the NCAA noted that “Bagent is in uncharted territory as there hasn't been a DII football QB on any active roster in quite some time.” I wrote an article about fellow Harlon Hill winner Luis Perez, who became the King of Spring Football, but couldn’t make it past an NFL practice squad.
Strand had some fringe draft hype because he’s 6-foot-5 and put up huge stats at Moorhead. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler had him as the QB15, but noted that the huge jump in competition would make him a developmental prospect. He wasn’t supposed to go straight from Bemidji State to the NFL.
Strand threw a pick-six on his first career passing attempt. It wasn’t really his fault — it was deflected. But still, not great.
Remember how I listed a bunch of categories in which Rush was last? Now, the Falcons are last and second-to-last in a bunch of other categories. According to the NFL’s NextGenStats hub, Rush and Strand are next to each other at the bottom of intended air yards, completed air yards, and completion percentage above expectation. (Below expectation, in their case.)
The Falcons have just one touchdown this season, a 23-yard pass to Bijan Robinson on a pass behind the line of scrimmage. The Falcons are the first team in almost 20 years to make it to Week 3 without entering the opposing red zone — the last team to do it was the 2008 Rams, who went 2-14.
What’s next for the Falcons? It’s unclear. They’re playing again Thursday night against the Packers. Penix is fully participating in practice, but has described himself as “not ready.” It seems odd that Penix could return from such a major rehab period on Thursday night after not being ready Sunday, but it’s apparently on the table. This makes the question of who to give first-team snaps in practice a fraught one — should those valuable reps go to your long-term QB, or the guy playing in a couple of days?
As for Strand, he joins a surprisingly solid list of guys with pick-sixes on their first career pass: Brett Favre (also with the Falcons!), Sam Darnold, and Jameis Winston. I guess that means there’s a two-thirds chance that Strand will go on to win a Super Bowl for somebody. (Just not the Falcons, of course.)
🦅 Eagles 24 🦅
🎸 Titans 20 🎸
Shoutout to Darius Cooper for winning the game for the Eagles with his first career touchdown catch with less than 10 seconds to go. Cooper, an undrafted free agent out of FCS Tarleton State, had nine catches as a rookie last year, none in the end zone. He primarily plays on special teams, but got on the field as the third wide receiver on the final play of the game, and the Titans apparently didn’t know to cover him. (Great job getting his feet down in the back of the end zone!)
He told NBC Sports that while his teammates were driving down the field, he was standing on the sideline repeating affirmations to himself — “I’m worthy; if the play comes my way, I know I can make it; things of that nature.”
(And that the first call he made after winning the game was to his wife. WHOLESOME!)
🇺🇸 Patriots 20 🇺🇸
🐝 Steelers 3 🐝
42-year old Aaron Rodgers got crunched on this play:
Rodgers can barely move and simply tries to get the ball out as quickly as possible to avoid getting hit. Which makes sense, because look at what it looks like when he gets hit.
🇳🇴 Vikings 9 🇳🇴
🧸 Bears 3 🧸
Most devastating play of the year: when Caleb Williams was running into the end zone for what would have been the game’s only touchdown, but instead went down at the 2-yard line with a leg injury and had to be helped off the field.
Good news: Williams’ injury reportedly isn’t severe, and he’s considered “week-to-week.”
Bad news: The Bears offense still looked pretty awful even when he was on the field, a massive comedown after putting up 59 points last week. (Somehow, not the biggest week-over-week drop in NFL history — in 1973, the Falcons scored 62 points in Week 1 and were shut out Week 2.)
🤠 Cowboys 37 🤠
🪖 Commanders 20 🪖
Actually, I think this game had the most devastating play of the year: On the final play of the first half, Jayden Daniels got stepped on by one of his offensive linemen, tripped, shielded his fall with his arm, and dislocated his elbow. It’s the same elbow that caused him to miss most of last season.
💩 Browns 23 💩
🏴☠️ Buccaneers 19 🏴☠️
This game was stopped for a two-hour lightning delay with just two minutes remaining. Apologies to any fans who stuck around to watch their Buccaneers come out of the locker room after 132 minutes, gain 5 yards, turn the ball over on downs, and lose to a team that was expected to be the worst in the NFL.
🌃 Giants 🌃 vs. 🐏 Rams🐏
8:15 p.m., in Los Angeles (ESPN)
Excited to see what the Rams look like when they haven’t been on a transpacific flight the day before a game. We’ll have to wait a little bit longer to see the Greatest Defensive Line Ever make its debut: Aaron Donald is back, but Myles Garrett is out. A lot of hype for the Giants after the Cowboys couldn’t stop them last week, but, well, the Cowboys tend not to stop things.
