New policy: Until Mbappé, Messi, and Haaland go a game without scoring a goal, I’m just gonna put them in the header images every time.
– Rodger Sherman
Today’s Lineup
What’s going on with the 2030 World Cup?
And the 2034 World Cup?!?!?!?!?!
… AND THE 2038 WORLD CUP?!?!?!?!?!?!
🌎↩️ Around the world and back 🌎↩️
I’ve mentioned a few times how the Morocco team that just made the quarterfinals is actually built for the 2030 World Cup, which Morocco is hosting …
… and I’ve written about how Lionel Messi, the all-time leading goalscorer in World Cup history, might also want to extend that record at the 2030 World Cup, which Argentina is hosting …
… and I’ve mentioned how Cristiano Ronaldo, who is 41 and clearly holding Portugal back, might be tempted to stick around for the 2030 World Cup, which Portugal is hosting …
This might lead you to ask: What the hell is going on?
So I wanted to write a little bit about the 2030, 2034, and 2038 men’s World Cups — because if there’s one thing I like more than sports, it’s bizarre corrupt international sports politics.
The main hosts of the 2030 World Cup in four years will be Spain, Portugal, and Morocco. Morocco has tried harder than just about any nation on Earth to host the World Cup, with four unsuccessful bids for the 1994, 1998, 2006, and 2010 competitions.
However, the 2030 World Cup will also commemorate the inaugural 1930 World Cup with three “centenary matches” held on the other side of the Atlantic in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. It’s a mini version of the losing bid for the 2030 World Cup, which was a proposed "Centenary Cup” co-hosted by those three nations and Chile.
OK, so the Uruguay part makes sense. The 1930 World Cup was held in Uruguay and won by Uruguay, so any commemoration of the 1930 World Cup should probably include a game in Uruguay.
Argentina … bit of a stretch. They did play in the 1930 World Cup final, but they didn’t host and they didn’t win, so it doesn’t really make sense that they would get a 100-year anniversary game.
But Paraguay? Paraguay did play in the 1930 World Cup, along with six other South American nations, but they didn’t make it out of the group stage after losing by three goals to the USA. (Some things never change!) Why are they getting a game?
If I had to guess, it’s because the president of the South American confederation, CONMEBOL, is a Paraguayan man named Alejandro Domínguez. Domínguez has been pushing for the World Cup to expand to 64 teams so the three South American nations can each host a full round of group play.
The six-country, three-continent World Cup feels like a lot, but we’re also entering an era when shared hosting duties for major international sporting events are becoming much more common. The USA, Mexico, and Canada are sharing the World Cup; the 2030 Olympics will be the first with events in multiple countries; the 2023 Women’s World Cup was shared between Australia and New Zealand; and the 2031 Women’s World Cup will be shared between the USA and a handful of other North American countries. It’s hard to have one nation host an entire sporting event!
The tri-continental World Cup seems nuts, but it makes sense to spread the burden and keep one nation from having to build 11 expensive stadiums it’ll never use again.
And then, in 2034, the men’s World Cup will be hosted by a single nation that claims it can build 11 of the most expensive, outlandish stadiums ever: Saudi Arabia.
You know how before every major international sporting event, people write “omg they’re not going to be able to build the stadiums in time, it’s going to be a disaster” and then it’s fine? How in January I was like “you guys, there’s a hole in the ice at the hockey venue in Milan!” and then they built the hockey venue in Milan with seemingly no other issues?
I wanna be clear: The Saudi stadium situation is so, so, so, so, so, so different from that. The Saudis have proposed a bunch of ridiculous, over-the-top stadiums that look like something a person with no engineering or architecture experience whipped up using AI, and convinced FIFA that they are actually going to build them within the next eight years. I’m not even sure we have the technology to achieve what they’re planning on building. Just look at this:
That’s the proposed NEOM Stadium, built as part of The Line, the proposed futuristic city built in a straight line of 1,000-foot-tall buildings across the middle of the Arabian desert. The stadium would sit on top of the 1,000-foot-tall buildings.
This is never going to happen. Of all the things that are never going to happen, this is one of the top things that is never going to happen the most. There is no country on Earth that could build this. It’s becoming increasingly clear that The Line itself is never going to get built, let alone the stadium on top of The Line, let alone within the next eight years. The USMNT has a better chance of winning the 2030 and 2034 World Cups back-to-back than the Saudis do of building a 1,000-foot-tall city with a stadium on top of it.
Let’s look at some other never-gonna-happen-but-still-technically-supposed-to-be-built-and-ready-in-eight-years-for-the-freakin’-World-Cup stadiums:
Bro those are Halo levels.
Stunningly, Saudi Arabia is reportedly looking to scale back the cost of the World Cup and might alter its construction plans. The Saudis have started easing up their “spend one trillion dollars on everything” plan of the last decade (for example, pulling the plug on LIV Golf).
For many years, the World Cup bounced between Europe and the Americas. In 2000, FIFA implemented a rotational system to put a World Cup on every habitable continent, which led to World Cups in South Africa and Brazil, but they scrapped the rotation before getting to all six. The current rule is that once a continent hosts the World Cup, it has to sit out the next two World Cups before hosting again. (I haven’t seen this written out explicitly by FIFA, but The Athletic mentioned the rule in its reporting.)
Why is that relevant? The tri-continental 2030 World Cup took three continents out of the mix for the 2034 and 2038 World Cups. North America was also ruled out for hosting in 2034, and only one country from Asia put in a bid: Saudi Arabia. There wasn’t even a vote to rig: FIFA had already eliminated most of the Saudis’ competitors.
FIFA loves Saudi money. In April 2024, a few months before the December 2024 vote to give Saudi Arabia the World Cup, FIFA reached a deal with Saudi state-owned oil company Aramco to make it a main sponsors of the 2026 and 2027 men’s and women’s World Cups, which is why you see big ads for Aramco on the sidelines of every World Cup game. It’s a funny sponsorship: There is literally no way for you, the consumer watching the games, to purchase Aramco products such as barrels of crude oil and natural gas. It’s unclear what benefit they get from putting their name on the sidelines.
And unless FIFA changes its rules, Asia, Africa, Europe, and South America are all eliminated from hosting the 2038 World Cup. The only remaining options would be Oceania, which may be functionally incapable of hosting a World Cup, or North America. That means …
… we might be looking at another USA-hosted World Cup in 2038. It would be the first time the same country has hosted two World Cups 12 years apart. But the 2026 World Cup has been a huge windfall for FIFA, selling more tickets than ever (smashing the record set by the last USA-hosted World Cup — we’ve got big stadiums!) at higher prices than ever.
The continent that’s clearly getting the rawest deal is South America, which will essentially only get one World Cup (2014 Brazil) in between 1978 and 2042. It sorta explains why they gave Paraguay a game even though they weren’t heavily involved in the 1930 World Cup. It’s something to sweeten the deal for the CONMEBOL president, who had to convince all the other countries from his continent to go along with it.
On the one hand, we know FIFA can and will change its rules whenever Gianni Infantino feels like it. On the other … we also know that one of the reasons he bends those rules is to benefit the United States of America.
So hey, maybe we’ll have another chance to go on a deep tournament run at home before too long! (Or, you know, maybe we’ll lose in the Round of 16 again.)
🇦🇷 Argentina 3 🇦🇷🇦🇷🇦🇷
🇪🇬 Egypt 2 🇪🇬🇪🇬
Argentina pulled off one of the most dramatic comebacks in World Cup history, defeating Egypt 3-2 in regulation after trailing 2-0 in the 80th minute. No team in World Cup history had ever won a game in regulation after trailing that late. Projections gave the Argentines a 0.6 percent chance of winning.
Of course, it could’ve been a 3-0 lead for Egypt if not for a bizarre VAR ruling that overturned a spectacular Egyptian goal. Egypt’s Haissem Hassan went on a miracle run 40-50 yards down the right side of the pitch, leading to a goal by Mostafa Ziko, but officials ruled that Egypt committed a foul to get the ball. The foul took place about 100 yards from the goal, and nearly 15 seconds before Egypt put the ball into the net, but most officials felt the call was correct.
Argentina’s two knockout wins have both been intense 3-2 wins over African nations they were widely expected to beat, after their 3-2 win over Cape Verde. Feels like a HE CAN’T KEEP GETTING AWAY WITH THIS!!!! situation except the guy who keeps getting away with it is also the greatest soccer player of all time and it’s pretty fun watching him get away with it.
🇫🇷 France 2 🇫🇷🇫🇷
🇲🇦 Morocco 0
Can anybody beat this French team? The xG difference in this game was 3.69 to 0.14, the third biggest of the entire tournament behind Germany’s 7-1 win over Curaçao (4.22 xG to 0.41) and Canada’s 6-0 win over Qatar (4.75 xG to 0.18).
Messi and Mbappé entered the World Cup in fifth and sixth place all-time in the World Cup goalscorer rankings; they’re now #1 and #2 with Messi five goals clear of previous record-holder Miroslav Klose …. and both guys MISSED penalties in their Round of 16 games!
🇺🇸🤝🌎 The “America is hosting the World Cup” moment of the day 🇺🇸🤝🌎
Egypt and Morocco both making the Round of 16 was a huge moment in the Astoria neighborhood in Queens, which has large populations of just about every immigrant community on earth but especially Egyptians and Moroccans.
🎾 Oh no Coco! 🎾
Coco Gauff had match point in a third set tiebreaker in her Wimbledon semifinal against Karolína Muchová, and appeared to have an easy shot for the win after a weak return … but Gauff tried to hit a cute drop shot and biffed it into the net.
(Do not watch this unless you want to feel a real big “oof.” )
Good for Muchová, who is headed to her first Wimbledon final and hoping to win her first Grand Slam. But man.
🇷🇺 Russia returns 🇷🇺
The IOC announced that it is provisionally lifting Russia’s suspension from the Olympics. Although the invasion of Ukraine is still ongoing, Russia has apparently stopped organizing sports in occupied areas of Ukraine’s internationally recognized sovereign territory, which the IOC claimed as the legal basis of the suspension (although Russia was previously banned from the Olympics for a massive state-sponsored doping program.) I would keep a very, very, very close eye on this over the next few years: If the invasion of Ukraine is still ongoing and Russia is allowed to compete, I would expect widespread boycotts of the LA 2028 games from multiple European nations.
🦖⁉️ Ka-What??? ⁉️🦖
The Raptors announced that they are pausing their already completed trade for Kawhi Leonard to await the results of the seemingly endless investigation into alleged salary cap manipulation by the Clippers as part of the Aspiration scandal. Apparently, they’re worried that Leonard might be personally punished for the situation — perhaps with a lengthy suspension, or a voided contract — in which case they may not want to send valuable asset to Los Angeles. But, like, they already announced the trade, and Kawhi has already landed in Toronto. It’s a bizarre, unprecedented situation.
🚵 Tour opened, Tour closed 🚵
The competition for the yellow jersey at the Tour de France feels like it’s just about over after just six stages. Slovenian superhero Tadej Pogačar dropped the competition on the famed Col de Tourmalet. Pogacar ascended the climb in 43:12, the fastest anybody has ever toppled the mountain by more than two minutes. He is already up 2:42 on his closest competition, and looks poised to extend that lead with the bulk of the mountains and a time trial still to go.
At least the race for the final spot on the podium is fun. Five riders are within 33 seconds of third place on the general classification, including 19-year-old Paul Seixas, who is being hailed as a generational talent who could someday end France’s long yellow jersey drought. Our friends at Phantom Island had a great episode about France’s struggles at its signature sporting event.
🦈 Dundon … Dundon … Dundon Dundon Dundon 🦈
(You were supposed to read that to the tune of the “Jaws” theme song.)
Tom Dundon, everybody’s new least favorite favorite sports owner, seems to have breached NHL tradition by getting his entire family inscribed on the Stanley Cup. Along with Dundon himself, he put the names of his wife and five children — Caden, Dax, Drew, Blake, and Tagan — on there. While some family members of team owners are on the Cup, it’s long been a requirement for those people to actually have jobs in the organization. Some of Dundon’s children appear to be school-aged.
When Oilers owner Peter Pocklington put his father’s name on the trophy in 1984, the NHL eventually crossed it out with Xs, one of just two names to be crossed off the trophy.
On Deck is written by Bradley Locker.
🌍⚽🏆 World Cup! 🏆⚽🌍
🇪🇸 Spain 🇪🇸 vs. 🇧🇪 Belgium 🇧🇪
Friday, 3 p.m. ET in Inglewood (FOX/Peacock/Telemundo)
The USMNT could’ve played in this game. Trying not to think about it …
Mikel Merino was the hero for Spain in the Round of 16, coming off the bench and notching a goal at the 90+1’ mark to sneak past Portugal and help the Spanish reach their first quarterfinal since 2010. Meanwhile, Belgium has to feel confident after making America look like THAT on Monday.
🇳🇴 Norway 🇳🇴 vs. 🏴 England 🏴
Saturday, 5 p.m. ET in Miami Gardens (FOX/Peacock/Telemundo)
Norway just keeps rowing through their first World Cup since 1998 — well, most of Norway. One dude is not interested in rowing. Erling Haaland blasted two more goals in the Round of 16 to topple Brazil. Meanwhile, England is coming off one of the greatest victories in World Cup history at Estadio Azteca.
England has real issues at right back. Jarell Quansah is suspended after his red card against Mexico (unlike Folarin Balogun, FIFA didn’t overturn his suspension, they actually added a second game.) Quansah was starting in place of Reece James, who is injured. Djed Spence has filled in, but he’s been widely criticized for his play. The team may play somebody out of position if James is still out. I’m sure shifting around defensive players won’t be an issue against Haaland!
🇦🇷 Argentina 🇦🇷 vs. 🇨🇭 Switzerland 🇨🇭
Saturday, 9 p.m. ET in Kansas City (FOX/Peacock/Telemundo)
Argentina keeps playing down to opponents they’re expected to beat, while Switzerland just beat an opponent they were expected to lose to. It’s been anything but smooth sailing for the defending champions Argentina, who pulled off a 28-3-esque comeback (in Atlanta … against a team in red and black) by scoring three goals in the final 15 minutes to avoid a stunning upset vs. Egypt. The Argentines should be favored, but Switzerland also endured drama in the Round of 16, downing Colombia on penalty kicks after both teams went goal-less through regular and extra time. Lionel Messi is going for a goal in nine straight World Cup contests, but the Swiss haven’t allowed more than one goal in any game so far.
⚾ MLB Draft ⚾
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET in Philadelphia (NBC/MLB Network/MLB.com)
Even with the draft days away, it’s unknown which direction the White Sox will go with the first overall pick. They have their choice among UCLA SS Roch Cholowsky, Texas high school SS Grady Emerson and Georgia Tech C Vahn Lackey. Admittedly, it’ll be a little strange having regular-season games going on during the draft. As recent drafts have shown (just look at 2024 with Nick Kurtz, Chase Burns and many more), it might not take long for the top picks to break out and become stars.
Brewers vs. Pirates
Sunday at 12:15 p.m. ET in Pittsburgh (Fubo/SportsNet PT/Brewers.TV)
This is a pitching matchup worth setting an alarm for. NL Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski takes on the 2025 winner, and division rival, Paul Skenes. Both hurlers have been touched up a bit of late, with Skenes’ dipping velocity and spin rates raising some concerns. However, it’s tough to ask for two bigger names on the bump to close out the first half of the season.
Phillies vs. Tigers
Sunday at 1:40 p.m. ET in Detroit (Fubo/DSN/NBCS-PH)
Another legendary pitching battle between Zack Wheeler and Tarik Skubal, who both rank among the top five most valuable starters by bWAR since 2021. Wheeler has been throwing angrily after being snubbed for the All-Star Game in his home ballpark, racking up 24 strikeouts over his past two starts. Meanwhile, Skubal has rounded into form by surrendering just two earned runs in his last 11 innings after returning from elbow surgery. Whether Detroit, which has suddenly crept back into the playoff picture by winning eight of nine games, will trade the two-time Cy Young winner looms as the biggest storyline going into the Aug. 3 trade deadline.
🍓🍓 Wimbledon 🍓🍓
Men’s semifinals Friday, women’s final Saturday, men’s final Sunday (ESPN/ABC)
The action will be non-stop all weekend from the All England Club. We begin Friday with a long-awaited showdown between #1 Jannik Sinner and #7 Novak Djokovic — Sinner had won five in a row, but Djokovic won their most recent matchup at the Australian open. On Saturday, we’ll get a first-time female champ from the Czech Republic between #9 Karolína Muchová and #10 Linda Nosková — the tenth new women’s winner in the last ten tournaments.
⚽ UEFA Men’s U19 Championship ⚽
Saturday, 2 p.m. ET in Wrexham, Wales (UEFA.tv/ViX)
The other soccer tournament happening right now. Spain and Germany will square off for the European U19 title. Do you think they can fly Lamine Yamal over to this tournament from the World Cup? He’s only 18, he’s eligible to play. Spain needs him!
Thank you for reading and for your support!
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