I feel like The Boy Who Cried “This Is The Greatest Sporting Event Of All Time” around here.
I keep saying things like “this was the best NBA championship ever” or “this was the best Winter Olympics ever,” and now four years after the best World Cup Final ever we’re in the middle of the best World Cup ever and it looks like we may have another new best World Cup Final ever.
The sports need to stop being so good.
– Rodger Sherman
Today’s Lineup
England parked the bus, and now they’re on the bus to the third-place matchup
Spain-Argentina has the makings of an all-time classic
This year’s Home Run Derby was one of the best ever
🇦🇷 ¡Dame mas Argentina! 🇦🇷
🇦🇷 Argentina 2 🇦🇷🇦🇷
🏴 England 1 🏴
That miniature magician did it again.
For the fourth time in four knockout games, Argentina pulled a late victory out of thin air. In the 85th minute, Argentina trailed England 1-0. When the final whistle sounded, Argentina won 2-1. Of course, Lionel Messi assisted both goals; he is now the all-time leading goalscorer and all-time assists leader in men’s World Cup history.
It was only the fourth time that a team trailing in a World Cup semifinal at any point has come back to win, and by far the latest a team has led the semis in regulation before failing to make the World Cup final. (France did have a lead in extra time in 1982 before losing to West Germany.)
Argentina has pulled out more comebacks and miracles than any World Cup team ever. (I’m getting real 2026 NBA champion New York Knicks vibes from these guys.) Let’s take a quick look at how they got here … and how they keep doing this.
In Argentina’s Round of 32 game against Cape Verde, the defending champions were tied with the first-time participants after 90 minutes. The two teams traded goals in extra time before Argentina won in the 111th minute on an own goal. If Cape Verde had won, it would’ve been the biggest upset in World Cup history.
In the Round of 16, Egypt took a 2-0 lead, but Argentina scored in the 79th, 84th, and 92nd minutes to win 3-2. It was the first time in World Cup history that a team trailed by two goals in the final 15 minutes and came back to win in regulation. (Egypt could’ve been up 3-0, but VAR had other ideas.) Argentina had a 0.6 percent win probability, per Opta.
In the quarterfinals, Argentina again needed extra time to win, even though Switzerland had been reduced to 10 men after another controversial VAR ruling, this time due to a Swiss player getting called for simulation for diving. Argentina scored in the 112th and 121st minutes to advance.
Ella Brockway of The Guardian unearthed an incredible stat: Through the 67th minute of World Cup matches, Argentina has been outscored by three goals. From the 68th minute on, they’ve outscored opponents by eight. Hydration break merchants! (¡Los mercantes de la pausa de hidratación!) Nine of their 11 goals in the knockout rounds have come in the 79th minute or later.
So how does this keep happening? I’m going to go out on a limb and say it has to do with the fact that they have the greatest soccer player of all time.
But, like, seriously.
England committed to an extreme defensive strategy to close the game late, subbing off attackers and midfielders for additional defenders. They were completely disinterested in maintaining the ball: Argentina had 88 percent possession in between the time England took the lead and the time Argentina took it back. Egypt also went into a bunker after going up 2-0, while Switzerland sort of had to after going down to 10 men.
(The only team bold enough to keep playing Argentina straight up: those beautiful Cape Verdeans. Vai Tubarões Azuis!
Prevent defense works in some scenarios. England also bunkered down against Mexico, who committed to lobbing in hopeless cross after hopeless cross against a packed-in defense.
But against Argentina, ceding possession means giving more and more chances to Messi, one of the smartest and most skilled players to ever live. 999,999 players might look at your end-game defensive shell and see a brick wall, but Messi can detect a millimeter-wide gap and use it to destroy you. Sending extra defenders at him is pointless; he’s a master manipulator who can get them to leave their assignments with a glance, and then thread a pinpoint pass to punish their mistakes.
Any strategy based on letting Messi have the ball as much as he wants is a strategy doomed to fail. You have to keep him from getting the ball in the first place, and England’s hopes of doing so walked off the field when they subbed off their various attackers.
I would also like to echo a timeless suggestion from Brian Grubb: when a team takes a lead on Messi, it should simply kick the ball in the air as high as possible until the clock runs out. Admittedly, this was harder for England in the semifinals because the stadium in Atlanta has a roof, which limits how high you can kick a ball. But the final will be played in roofless MetLife Stadium in beautiful New York/New Jersey, so it should be possible to kick the ball in the air for 30, perhaps 40 minutes if the players’ legs are strong enough. For more brilliant soccer tactical advice (and TV reviews), check out Grubb’s newsletter, Click Type Click.
If Spain gets a lead in the final, they’re well equipped to keep the ball away from Messi. They have the second-highest possession percentage and second-highest passing percentage of any team in the World Cup. They’ve allowed just one goal in the entire World Cup — not just because their defense is excellent, but because they keep teams from getting the ball.
But if one team has a late lead, and the other team has Lionel Messi, the game is far from over.
🙌🏆🙌 La Finalissima 🙌🏆🙌
After one of the best World Cups of all time, we’re going to get one of the best World Cup Finals of all time. Spain-Argentina should be a classic. Here’s why:
For the first time ever, the World Cup Final features the reigning winner of the European Championship and the reigning winner of Copa America. Over the years, we have seen on-and-off attempts to organize a quadrennial meetup between Euros and Copa winners called La Finalissima — the final of finals — but a match between Spain and Argentina planned for March in Qatar was canceled due to the war in Iran.
(I hope UEFA doesn’t mind that I took the promo image from that game and used it here.)
Whoever wins will have a great argument for being one of the best teams of all time. Only two teams have won the World Cup after winning the Euros — West Germany in 1974, and Spain in 2010 — and only one team has ever won the World Cup after winning Copa America — Argentina four years ago, in 2022.
If the Argentines win, they’ll be the first back-to-back World Cup champions since Brazil in 1958 and 1962. Those were won by the legendary Pelé; these two would be won by Messi.
Argentina would also be the first team to win four major tournaments in a row (Copa America 2021, World Cup 2022, Copa America 2024, World Cup 2026). The only other team to win three tournaments in a row was Spain (Euros 2008, World Cup 2010, Euros 2012.)
There’s a mystical — you could say Messi-anic — element to the matchup, too. Messi was famously photographed bathing a baby Lamine Yamal as part of a UNICEF photoshoot in 2007. (If you haven’t seen the picture yet, you’ll probably see it between now and Sunday.) I think sometimes we go too far canonizing human athletes as god-like figures, but MESSI BAPTIZED A CHILD AND BLESSED HIM WITH HIS SOCCER POWERS. Now 19 years old, Yamal has been billed as a sort-of second coming of Messi due to their similar play styles and their training at Barcelona’s famed La Masia academy. The fact that they’re playing each other in the World Cup final feels like a passing of the torch.
It’s the first World Cup final between a former colonial power and one of the nations they colonized. Fun???
But my favorite World Cup Final fact: It’s a matchup between two teams that played Cabo Verde and failed to beat them in 90 minutes. Cabo Verde tied Spain 0-0 in the group stages behind a brilliant performance from Vozinha in goal. Cabo Verde was also tied with Argentina at the end of regulation, 1-1, before losing 3-2 in extra time. No matter who wins, we’ll know that they are exactly as good as our beloved Blue Sharks.
🏴🇦🇷 What the Falk? 🇦🇷🏴
Argentina faces potential FIFA sanctions for displaying a banner that read THE FALKLANDS ARE ARGENTINA’S after beating England. The Argentine players also sang a song about the Falklands in the locker room after beating Egypt. Argentina was previously fined by FIFA for holding up a banner with the exact same phrase in 2014. I mentioned the fact that Argentina and the United Kingdom fought a war in the 1980s in Monday’s newsletter, but I don’t think I did a good enough job explaining how the war has become a “Remember the Alamo”-esque rallying cry for Argentina.
Just to be clear: the official stance of Sports! The Newsletter is that they should not do the Falklands War again. I think it was a bad idea the first time, and I think it would be bad if they did it again. I said this repeatedly about World War I during the Olympics, and yet six months later, my social media mentions are filled with people accusing me of trying to re-start World War I. So I just want to get ahead of this and assert as loudly as possible that I don’t think they should fight another war over the Falklands.
🔥🔥🔥 This World Cup Final is FIRE! 🔥🔥🔥
I remain baffled at the decision to host the World Cup Final in East Rutherford, New Jersey at MetLife Stadium — or as it’s being called by FIFA, New York/New Jersey Stadium. MetLife is regularly ranked as one of the worst NFL stadiums, despite being built less than 20 years ago for more than $1 billion, due to its lack of atmosphere and inconvenient location. And while many other World Cup venues have domes, MetLife is open air, exposing players to the heat and humidity of American summers.
And now here’s a new, unexpected problem: It’s orange outside my window right now. Canadian wildfires are spreading smoke across the entire northeast United States, wrecking the air quality. Wednesday night’s Gotham FC game in Queens was played with an air quality index of 171, and the teams took two hydration breaks per half so players could catch their breaths. NASA projections show a worrisome amount of smoke lingering through Sunday. Depending on what happens, we could get a sepia-toned final with pausas de oxygenacion.
⚾️🏟️ Dingers! Dingers! Dingers! ⚾️🏟️
The Home Run Derby was one of the best of all time, with Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker hitting six straight homers on six pitches to defeat Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber in front of an increasingly aggrieved Philadelphia crowd:
The actual All-Star Game was a 4-0 win for the American League. I said it once and I’ll say it again: Less All-Star Game, more Home Run Derby/Slam Dunk Contest/whatever Skills Challenge your sport can invent. We watch the players play regular sports all year long, give us some fun dumb stuff!
On Deck is written by Bradley Locker and Rodger Sherman.
🌍⚽🏆 World Cup 🏆🌍⚽
3️⃣🥉👌 THIRD-PLACE GAME!!!!! 👌🥉3️⃣
🇫🇷 France 🇫🇷 vs. 🏴 England 🏴
Saturday, 5 p.m. ET in Miami (FOX/Peacock/Telemundo)
YES, THAT’S RIGHT: THEY PLAY A THIRD-PLACE GAME AT THE WORLD CUP!!!!!! It’s probably the most famous third-place game outside of the bronze medal matches at the Olympics. The NFL and NCAA men’s basketball tournament used to have third-place matches, but no more.
Do I recommend watching? Yeah sure, why not! There’s only two games left! Make the most of them! Third-place games tend to be high scoring affairs, with multiple goals in 20 out of the 21 third-place games all-time. Teams do tend to bench their best players … but goals in these matches count for the Golden Boot, and sometimes the third-place match decides who wins. (The best example: 1990, when Roberto Baggio conceded penalty-taking duties to Totò Schillaci, who scored and won the boot.) Kylian Mbappé needs to score to win the boot: both Mbappé and Messi have scored eight goals, but Messi has more assists, which counts as the tiebreaker.
I will say, these matches tend to be more fun when they feature teams that went on surprise runs rather than teams that were among the favorites win the World Cup and fell short. England has appeared twice in third-place games, losing both — most recently a 2-0 loss to Belgium in 2018. — RS
🏆🏆🏆 WORLD CUP FINAL!!!! 🏆🏆🏆
🇪🇸 Spain 🇪🇸 vs. 🇦🇷 Argentina 🇦🇷
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET in “New York/New Jersey” (FOX/Peacock/Telemundo)
We already wrote about this one!
Remember, because it’s America’s turn to host the World Cup, this game will feature the first World Cup Final halftime show. Justin Bieber, BTS, Madonna, and Shakira are expected to perform. — RS
🇬🇧⛳The Open Championship (translated: The British Open) ⛳🇬🇧
Begins Thursday at 1:30 a.m. ET in Southport, England (NBC/Peacock/USA Network)
The final major of the year tees off Thursday from the Royal Birkdale Golf Club outside Liverpool. Historically, this tournament is all about parity. We haven’t had a repeat winner since 2012, and nobody has won back-to-back since Tiger Woods in 2005 and 2006. With three different golfers coming out on top in the first three majors of the year, we’ve got no idea who’s gonna win this one. — BL
🇧🇪🏎️ Belgian Grand Prix 🏎️🇧🇪
Sunday, 2 p.m. ET in Spa, Belgium (Apple TV)
Ferrari notched its second victory in three races with Charles Leclerc’s win at the British Grand Prix earlier this month. That result felt like an aberration considering Mercedes’ dominance this season, with Kimi Antonelli and George Russell combining to finish first in seven of nine races. Nineteen-year-old phenom Antonelli has already won five races this year and could be the youngest F1 champ ever. — BL
⚾️ MLB ⚾️
🍎 Mets 🍎 vs. 🔔 Phillies 🔔
Thursday, 7 p.m. ET in Philadelphia (ESPN)
After a thrilling Home Run Derby and pitching-dominant All-Star Game, the action will remain in Citizens Bank Ballpark as the Mets take on the Phillies in the only game on Thursday. Philadelphia hopes hurler Aaron Nola can show signs of improvement given his 5.75 ERA, although he’s tallied 15 strikeouts in his past two outings. — BL
🎬 Dodgers 🎬 vs. 🌃 Yankees 🌃
Friday, 7 p.m. ET in New York City (MLB Network)
This series serves as not only a 2024 World Series rematch, but also as a possible 2026 Fall Classic preview. The Dodgers (27.3%) and Yankees (11.3%) rank first and second, respectively, in FanGraphs’ World Series odds through the first half. After sitting out the Midsummer Classic due to knee inflammation, superstar Shohei Ohtani will return to the lineup for Los Angeles. Meanwhile, New York hopes its annual mid-summer swoon is over, riding a four-game win streak on the back of breakout star Ben Rice. This should be one of the better series of the whole season. — BL
🏀⛹️♀️ WNBA ⛹️♀️🏀
🗽 Liberty 🗽 vs. 🪽 Wings 🪽
Thursday, 9 p.m. ET in Dallas (Prime Video)
Dallas has looked much improved this season with Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd and is currently on a five-game win streak. The Liberty are just 13-11 and have dropped three in a row after winning the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup. One of those was a loss to this Wings team where breakout star Jessica Shepherd had a 22-point triple double. — BL
🚴♂️🥖 Tour de France 🚴♂️🥖
Friday-Sunday, stages starting at approximately 6:30 a.m. ET (Peacock/NBCSN/NBC)
Tadej Pogačar has established that he’s in a class of his own. The only question now is by how much can he win this year’s Tour. He’s on a mission to dominate, and with mountain-top finishes on Saturday and Sunday, he should add several more minutes to his lead (and probably a few more stage wins) before the final week. (Both of those stages will be broadcast on basic NBC if you don’t have Peacock.) The real battle at this year’s Tour is for the second- and third-place spots on the podium. Jonas Vingegaard is second overall, but beginning to show cracks. Behind him, five riders are within 1’32” of his overall time. — LB
🇺🇸⚽️ MLS is Back ⚽️🇺🇸
Thursday, beginning at 7:30 p.m. ET (Apple TV)
That’s right folks! A chance to watch soccer right here in the United States of America, starting Thursday night! Although I suspect Lionel Messi might be unavailable for Inter Miami’s first game back next Wednesday … — RS
Thank you for reading and for your support!
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